Is it a buyers or sellers market? The tale of two key indicators

When trying to figure out whether we’re in a buyers or sellers market, there are two indicators I

always look at first: housing stock levels and time to sale. These metrics tell us more about market

dynamics than most people realise.

The latest figures from Realestate.co.nz show we had 36,870 residential properties available for sale

at the end of March. That’s the highest number since April 2015 – a significant milestone. This

represents a 10.9% increase compared to March last year and a whopping 25.9% jump from March

2023.

Even more telling? Stock levels have nearly doubled (+90%) since March 2021 when the market was

absolutely booming. If you’re wondering what this means, let me break it down.

What housing stock levels tell us

Housing stock is essentially the inventory of homes available for sale at any given time. It’s a

straightforward supply measurement – how many options do buyers have?

In a balanced market, we see consistent stock levels that represent several months of supply. But

when stock levels start climbing significantly as we’re seeing now, it typically signals a shift toward a

buyers market.

Why? Because more choices for buyers means more competition among sellers. When I talk to

sellers in high-stock environments, I always emphasise the importance of realistic pricing and

standout presentation. Your property isn’t just competing against a few others on the street

anymore – it’s competing against thousands across the region.

Time to sale: The often overlooked metric

While everyone watches median prices, savvy market observers keep an eye on how long properties

are taking to sell. This metric often shifts before prices do, making it a leading indicator of market

Direction.

When homes sell quickly (under 30 days), sellers have the upper hand. They can be more confident

about their asking price and are less likely to negotiate down.

Conversely, when properties linger on the market for 60+ days, buyers gain leverage. Extended

selling periods force price reconsiderations and often lead to discounting – a classic buyers market

symptom.

What this means right now

With housing stock nearly doubling since 2021, we’re seeing clear evidence of a market that’s cooled

significantly. The pendulum has swung from the extreme sellers market of 2021 (remember those

frantic auctions and unconditional offers?) toward a more balanced environment that increasingly

favours buyers.

For sellers, this means adjusting expectations. The days of setting ambitious prices and expecting

multiple offers are behind us for now. Success requires competitive pricing, outstanding

presentation, and patience.

For buyers, there’s good news. You can now take time to inspect properties thoroughly, conduct due

diligence, and negotiate terms that work for you. The pressure to make snap decisions has eased

considerably.

Looking forward

Market cycles are inevitable. The current high stock levels suggest we’re in a correction phase

following the extraordinary boom of 2020-2021. History tells us these conditions won’t last forever –

markets eventually find equilibrium.

What’s certain is that understanding these key indicators gives you an edge whether buying or

selling. Stock levels and time to sale might not make flashy headlines like median prices do, but they

often tell you where the market is headed before anyone else figures it out.